Don’t know

The one constant in the leadership campaign has been the effusive praise the three contenders have heaped upon Rhodri Morgan. Today’s YouGov poll confirms why. Nearly two thirds of voters reckon the current FM has either performed fairly or very well. Only one in five think he’s done badly.

A 44% net approval rating, then. Most leaders would trade their grannies in for that. Ask Gordon Brown: his rating is -24% in Wales.

And the rest of the voters? 17% say Don’t Know about Rhodri. That’s a response the YouGov pollsters would have got used to when compiling the results of this survey.

How well would Carwyn perform as FM? Don’t Know (54%). Huw Lewis? Don’t Know (59%). Edwina Hart? Don’t Know (45%). Ieuan Wyn Jones? Don’ Know (47%).

That is not to say there are not differences between the only four realistic contenders for the position of next First Minister. On the net scale Carwyn is +18%. Huw is +3%. Edwina is -1%. Ieuan is +8%. That is good news to a Carwyn camp pushing their man as the one with widespread appeal.

But the overall winner in all four cases is ignorance. The fact that the two who most routinely appear on TV – Edwina Hart and Ieuan Wyn Jones have lower d/ks than the other two show that ratings – but not necessarily popularity – follow familiarity. Edwina’s team won’t be delighted to have the only candidate to be in the negative territory, but perhaps it’ll play into her campaign narrative as the person who talks straight and gets things done. Huw, meanwhile, will presumably be moderately pleased to be punching his weight despite being outside the cabinet, though perhaps a little disquieted at being the least recognised.

All of which brings us back to Rhodri. Nine years since he took the job, the Cardiff West AM prepares to leave with an approval rating no other leader in the UK can match. It’s not a legacy, but if the verdict on Rhodri turns out to be that he bought much-needed credibility to devolution following the Alun Michael debacle, it’s pretty good evidence.

Survey Report