Conventionally speaking
Bubble — By Daran Hill on October 27, 2009 9:01 amTHE YouGov poll doesn’t just cover General Election voting intention. It also looks ahead to the probable/possible (delete as you believe appropriate) referendum on future powers for the National Assembly. When the All Wales Convention reports on November 18, this issue will move to the top of the political agenda.
A number of questions on this topic are posed, of which the following is perhaps the most relevant: “If there were to be a referendum tomorrow on giving the National Assembly for Wales full law-making powers how would you vote?”
The headline responses to this question were as follows:
- I would vote Yes (i.e. in favour of giving the National Assembly full law-making powers) – 42%
- I would vote No (i.e. against giving the National Assembly full law-making powers) – 37%
- Wouldn’t vote – 6%
- Don’t know – 15%
Compare this to the 1997 referendum when the votes split 51% to 49% between yes and no and it is clear that in terms of the closeness of the two arguments that little has changed. The biggest thing that leaps out in terms of change is that in 1997 50% of the electorate did not vote, but if this poll were held only a fifth of electors wouldn’t commit to voting in a particular direction.
This referendum voting data is also stratified against political parties and gives the following cross section data:
- Conservative voters are most opposed to the Assembly, 53% to 32%.
- Labour voters remain split pretty evenly on the issue, 44% to 41%.
- The Liberal Democrat Party may be pro-devolution but their supporters divide 38% in favour and 44% against.
- Plaid voters would vote 80% in favour of a yes vote – which begs the question why would 20% of Plaid supporters be opposed to a stronger Assembly? Perhaps someone should explain Plaid Cymru to them…
Survey Report
| All figures, unless otherwise stated, are from YouGov Plc. Total sample size was 1,078 adults. Fieldwork was undertaken between 21st – 23rd October 2009. The survey was carried out online. The figures have been weighted and are representative of all GB adults (aged 18+). |
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6 Comments
” Labour voters remain split pretty evenly on the issue, 44% to 41%.”
44% what and 41% what????
Simon, 44% in favour of the proposition, 41% against
An interesting article over on GWF which looks at an aligned question:
http://guerrilla-welsh-fare.blogspot.com/2009/10/polling-day-how-wales-is-run.html
“The question which asked, ‘To what extent, if at all, do you agree or disagree with the following statement? “The National Assembly for Wales should have the same level of powers as the Scottish Parliament?” retruned almost a 2/3rd support for agreement. 63% of people either agreed or strongly agreed. This was in contrast to only 28% who disagreed with 9% stating they did not know.”
Both questions need to be read in parallel probably, but why the gap of 20% between those who think Wales should be like Scotland and those actually prepared to vote for that option? This certainly needs more attention.
Again this is far too close to call and will confirm the view of many in the Labour Party that now is not the time to hold a referendum. The real question is where does this leave the Plaid hardliners if there is no referendum in 2010/11?
Without the reaction to Thatcherism in the core Labour areas in 1997, I’ve no doubt that the referendum would have been lost. I was in the count in Bridgend as box after box came in from the Bridgend constituency with large majorities against the Assembly . The ‘yes’ majority in Bridgend CBC owed everything to a massive ‘yes’ vote from the Ogmore constituency. Whether in any future referendum this will happen again I’m not so sure.
In my view, the key to any future result is how many of those voters who didn’t vote in either the 1997 referendum or in subsequent Assembly elections will take part. Whatever the outcome of the Jones-Parry Commission one thing is certain it will not help any politician decide when it comes to the timing of any referendum.
Although on the crucial question of how they would vote in a referendum on full law making powers the sample was split 41:37 with only a slim majority, if you scratch below the surface of the poll and look at the data in the other questions, there is a trend throughout of support for further law making powers.
15% of people stated that they did not know how they would vote in a referendum. It will be crucial for the yes and no camps to try and win over this important group.
When the “Don’t Knows” were asked whether they agreed with the statement “The National Assembly should have the same level of powers as the Scottish Parliament” the results were as following:
Strongly agree – 8
Tend to agree – 47
Tend to disagree – 7
Strongly disagree – 4
Don’t know – 34
If the referendum is hard fought and both sides can pick up the “don’t knows” as suggested above, the result would look more like:
Yes – 49
No – 39
Don’t know – 5
At the end of the day, no opinion poll looks likely to present a two thirds or three quarters majority in favour of a primary legislative powers, but the polls are encouraging, and as long as the political pro-devolution elites in all four parties are willing to fight to win, the yes campaign should triumph, but it is not going to be easy.
Joseph – thanks for these observations.
“If you scratch below the surface of the poll and look at the data in the other questions, there is a trend throughout of support for further law making powers.”
The other questions are indeed more positive to the yes perspective. But the question I have cited is the most directly signifcant in terms of the way it has been framed. But it is bewildering why so many of the polled sample think that Wales should have powers on a par with Scotland, yet are not prepared to vote for such a position. We will return to this theme on WalesHome.org later this week.
With regard to the Don’t Knows, the 1997 experience was that they pretty much all moved into the No camp or did not vote. That may be different next time round.
Yes indeed, it is not going to be easy…