Carwyn plays his hand and takes clear lead in first section of electoral college

CARWYN JONES has finally played his hand and laid out the full list of MPs who are backing him for the leadership of Welsh Labour. As hinted by his campaign manager Leighton Andrews last week, the campaign has been “quietly confident that Carwyn will receive the backing of an overall majority of Welsh Labour MPs”. That prediction has now come to pass. Today Carwyn Jones’ campaign has confirmed the support of fourteen of the twenty seven Members of Parliament from Wales who can declare their support (Wales Office Ministers Peter Hain and Wayne David having decided not to endorse). In addition to the previously declared MPs, including the six out of seven North Wales Members announced on Monday, and the previously identified supporters, a number of other influential MPs have now joined the Carwyn team. These are:

• Hywel Francis MP (Aberavon), who Chairs the Welsh Affairs Select Committee;
• Nick Ainger MP (Carmarthen West & South Pembrokeshire), former Wales Office Minister;
• Kevin Brennan MP (Cardiff West), Minister for State for Further Education, Skills, Apprenticeships and Consumer Affairs;
• Left winger and pro-devolutionist Paul Flynn MP (Newport West);
• Ann Clwyd AM (Cynon Valley), the second longest serving MP from Wales; and
• Huw Irranca-Davies MP (Ogmore), Minister for Marine and Natural Environment, who had previously made his support known locally.

Offering his endorsement, former Rhodri Morgan campaign manager Kevin Brennan said: “What I’m looking for in a new leader for Labour in the Welsh Assembly and a new Labour First Minister is someone who can communicate with the Welsh people, somebody with a vision for the future of Wales, and most importantly of all, someone who can help us win a victory next time in the Assembly elections, so we can once again form a Labour administration in the Welsh Assembly. That’s why I’ve got no doubt that Carwyn Jones is the right person to lead us forward in Wales and I’ll be supporting him in the leadership election for the Welsh Labour Party.”

As widely expected therefore, with 14 MPs in support Carwyn Jones has motored ahead amongst the Westminster contingent. Huw Lewis has four MPs in support so far: Jessica Morden MP (Newport East), Sian James MP (Swansea East), Martyn Jones MP (Clwyd South), and Dai Havard MP (Merthyr Tydfil and Rhymney). Edwina Hart has three Members of Parliament so far declared in her corner: Paul Murphy MP (Torfaen), Don Touhig MP (Islwyn) and Martin Caton MP (Gower).

This leaves just six Members of Parliament who have yet to declare a preference – if they do so. These are:

• Nia Griffith MP (Llanelli);
• Alan Williams MP (Swansea West), the Father of the House of Commons;
• Alun Michael MP (Cardiff South & Penarth), who has endorsed Huw Lewis’ ideas but not his candidacy;
• Julie Morgan MP (Cardiff North), who has possibly stayed out of it so that her support is not interpreted as a proxy for her husband;
• John Smith MP (Vale of Glamorgan); and
• Former Minister Kim Howells MP (Pontypridd).

It is of course possible that some of these will declare for Huw or Edwina over the next 24 hours (all endorsements need to be in by tomorrow), but by any measure it is clear that Carwyn Jones has stormed it amongst MPs. The consequences of this are significant. It means he has secured more support than either of the other two candidates in the race, in the important first section of the electoral college mechanism to elect the new Leader. This section consists of all Labour AMs, Labour MPs representing Welsh constituencies, and the Labour MEP representing Wales.

We now know that Carwyn has the declared support of 9 AMs and 14 MPs in this section. Each vote is worth approximately 0.59% of the total electoral college so on these figures alone he has secured some 14% of the total college. Edwina Hart has been able to count of 10 AMs and 3 MPs, which gives her approximately 8% of the total college; while Huw Lewis with 6 AMs and 4 MPs has given him around 6%. The remaining 8 MPs including the Wales Office Ministers plus Rhodri Morgan AM and Derek Vaughan MEP carry around a further 6% between them.

Tomorrow is also the day by which all Constituency Labour Party and trade union endorsements need to be in. Unlike MPs, these do not automatically translate into individual votes in the electoral college and we will not know the outcome of the union and ordinary party member ballots until the result is declared on December 1st.

Indeed, in all honesty we won’t know which way the AMs and MPs have gone either, because it is a secret ballot. But all three camps are confident that those who have declared for them will vote for them and, perhaps equally importantly, campaign for them.