But who do Labour voters want?

ONE aspect of the YouGov poll missed by everyone (including us) but picked up by Huw Lewis is how the Labour leadership contenders are perceived among Labour voters, as opposed to the public-at-large.

Here, in place of the +18%, +3% and -1% net approval ratings for Carwyn, Huw and Edwina respectively, the race looks a good deal more interesting – and a good deal closer.

Among the 294 respondents (weighted) who say they will vote Labour at the next General Election, Carwyn still leads with a net approval rating of +33%. But Huw is now much closer proportionately at +27%. Edwina, meanwhile comes in at +16%.

For those saying they will vote Labour at the next Assembly elections (274, weighted), Carwyn retains his top spot and rating of +33%, Huw posts a +26% and Edwina declines slightly to +12%.

What the data lack are any baseline comparisons. We have no idea how the numbers have moved lately, and we won’t get another snapsnot during the race. But for Labour Party members, this has to be the most important YouGov metric as far as the leadership race is concerned. For all Labour’s calamitous recent decline, there are enough voters out there to deliver the lion’s share of Westminster seats next year to the party and to make it easily the largest grouping in 2011. Members will want to know how the three candidates play among supportive voters – now they know.

Carwyn’s team must be pleased but not delighted. It supports their claim to have the candidate with the greatest appeal. Edwina’s camp, meanwhile, will presumably be the keenest to play down the findings. It shows her to be some way behind (Ieuan Wyn Jones, by way of comparison, enjoys a net +10% approval rating among Labour voters).

But it is surely Lewis Central with the most to trumpet – hence the fact that only they have highlighted these figures. A spokesperson for the Merthyr AM told WalesHome.org that: “The more Labour they are, the more Huw they are”. We’re not so sure about that, but he’s certainly in the hunt as the candidate most likely to deliver electorally.