A question of timing

EVERYONE has suddenly got an opinion on when a referendum on increasing the Assembly’s powers should be held, and it’s still about three weeks before the All Wales Convention reports.

Yesterday it was Peter Hain who set the agenda when he made a hard hitting speech at Cardiff University and argued that the climate was not yet right to hold a referendum that could be won. It proved to be a hot topic both within the lecture theatre and in the political sphere.

Indeed, it migrated easily too, to last night’s Sharp End on ITV, where a debate was held between the leadership contenders. Earlier today on Betsan’s blog resident squatter Adrian Masters reflected on the discussion. He says: “For those watching for any hints of how the next First Minister might view chances of a referendum I thought there was an interesting difference of opinion. Huw Lewis put very strongly his ‘one poll at a time’ argument that Labour needs to concentrate on fighting the next General Election before any referendum. Carwyn Jones warned that it would be “a bad move” if Labour AMs pushed ahead without the support of Labour MPs. Only Edwina Hart seemed to regard the One Wales pledge committing Labour to campaigning for a successful Yes vote as the priority that Labour’s partners in Plaid see it. Small differences? Maybe. But important both to those who’ll select the new leader and those in Plaid who’ll have to work with them.”

And Plaid have certainly started having their say. By a beautiful coincidence, Rhodri Glyn Thomas AM weighed in this morning on WalesHome.org. He was quite clear that: “The new First Minister of Wales should lead the campaign for further powers for the Assembly in the forthcoming referendum” and, by implication, that should be a priority for whoever wins the leadership election.

Helen Mary Jones AM, Plaid Cymru’s director of elections, took it further in this morning’s Western Mail when she said: “This isn’t a matter for internal party politics. People like Huw Lewis need to remember that the deal was supported by the overwhelming majority of his party rank and file as it was by mine… The timing of the referendum should depend on the Convention’s advice and when the referendum is most likely to be won and not on an election to another place.”

This evening Huw Lewis will bite back. Speaking to Labour Party members in Preseli Pembrokeshire he will say: “Either Helen Mary Jones is deliberately misreading what I’ve said or she doesn’t understand the terms of the One Wales deal – either way her remarks smack of political naivety. If she likes, I’m more than happy to go door to door with her in Llanelli and see what people in that community want to get on with first – beating back a resurgent Tory threat, or holding a debate on more powers.”

Responding to Helen’s Mary line which says: “People like Huw Lewis need to remember that the deal was supported by the overwhelming majority of his party rank and file…” Huw will have more to say: “I would be interested to know what Helen Mary means by that phrase ‘people like Huw Lewis’. Does she mean people like me who experienced first-hand the devastation wrought on Welsh communities by a Conservative government? People like me, from the Valleys? People like me who have actually read the terms of the One Wales deal? Or does she mean people like me who refuse to pander to certain agendas for the sake of a few votes?”

But he saves the hardest remarks till last: “Look, I was the Assistant General Secretary at Welsh Labour running our 1997 ‘yes’ vote campaign. I well remember the other parties flocking to Labour HQ to pick up campaign materials – frankly the yes campaign would have been dead in the water if it wasn’t for the expertise and hard work of dozens of Labour activists and the resources poured into Wales from all around the UK. If Helen Mary thinks you can run that kind of operation alongside the brutal campaign we have ahead of us against the Tories in the Spring she is living in cloud cuckoo land. That, or David Cameron has found an unlikely and unwitting ally in Llanelli.”

So the gloves are off between parties as well as just within Labour.

For a far less inflammatory take on the timing of the referendum, yours truly is on BBC Radio Wales “Called to Order” at 6.32pm. You can listen in here or later here.