It’s not over yet
Labour must discover the spirit of '97 if it is to succeed at the polls once more
THIS WEEKEND the Labour Party gathers in Brighton for the last time before the next General Election.
At the conference on Sunday evening, I will chair a fringe meeting of Go 4th Supporters in Wales – a group dedicated to campaign for a Labour fourth term. I am under no illusions. The task of achieving this historic victory will be no cakewalk for the party. Against the backdrop of protest votes at both local and European elections and the global economic and financial turmoil of the last 18 months, the Labour Party has faced a huge test, both inside and outside of Government.
If you read the headlines of the more unquestioning Tory-supporting newspapers, you could be forgiven for believing that all is already lost for Labour. Yet, the reality of the political situation on the ground, as opposed to the wishful thinking of those few editors, are miles apart. For Labour, there is all to play for. In recent days, the battle lines have come more sharply into focus, as both the Tories and Liberal Democrats have indulged in grotesque display of who can slash public spending the most. Both parties are now locked in a fiscal arm wrestle, foolishly convinced that the British public will somehow reward them in the ballot box. Nothing could further from the truth
In spite of all the hype and the gloss, opinion poll after opinion poll demonstrate that David Cameron has not yet established that much needed ‘connect’ with the British people which he requires to propel him through the door of 10 Downing Street. We are nowhere near witnessing the wave of optimism and hope that swept Labour to power in 1997. He has not clinched the deal with voters. As such, I believe the door remains ajar for Labour to win next spring. The reasons why Cameron is failing to connect are manifold. However, it is clear that on the economic front in particular, the Tories have been completely out of step with what decisive action was needed to address the economic turmoil. At every stage of the current global economic and financial crisis, the Tories misread each situation and as a consequence called for the wrong course of corrective action. Even now, their limited policy announcements demonstrate that if they were in Government now, they would actually choke off recovery in the UK, before it even started.
As for the Liberal Democrats, they have made a huge tactical blunder by playing their hand on public spending so early. We now know the irresponsible extent to which they would want to wield the axe, if ever they got their hands on the levers of coalition Government in London. The now-legendary Vince Cable ‘cuts’ document – which was foolishly prepared for him by a right-wing think tank – will hang like a millstone around his neck, right up to polling day. It will be quoted back at him in every conceivable opportunity. We all witnessed this week how the illusion of semi-competence carefully constructed around him in recent months simply vapourised into the clear Bournemouth air.
In Wales, it is now clear that the prospect of letting either a majority Tory Government through the doors of No.10 or one propped-up by Nick Clegg would have disastrous consequences on our economic recovery. The Lib Dems are now openly advocating the cancellation of the St Athan defence training academy in South Wales and scrapping the Airbus A400M project, whose wings would be built at Broughton in North Wales. The A400M aircraft and the Eurofighter programme are also on George Osborne’s agenda to be cut. The cancellation of either or both projects, would have a considerable impact on the Welsh aerospace industry and a consequential a loss of Welsh jobs. It is becoming clear that only Labour now stands between recovery and further decline for the UK economy. Taking a punt on Cameron is simply a risk too far.
So what must Labour do to win the next General Election? Firstly, we need to stop talking down our chances our victory. We need to believe in ourselves and realise that the Tories can be beaten. We need to expose the myth that Cameron and his party have undergone some form of radical ideological transplant. They have not. We need to strip that veneer away and reveal what the Tories really stand for when it comes to issues like taxation. We have to say loud and clear that the Tories are committed to a programme of wealth redistribution – but not of the kind that will benefit the majority of working people. Their idea of wealth redistribution will be designed to advantage just the few. In every constituency across the UK, we will have to stand up and fight for every single vote at the next General Election. We can and must re-kindle the spirit of determination within the Party that took us to victory in 1997, and subsequent victories in 2001 and 2005
We know that people of Britain value their public services, and its our job to expose the difference between how Labour will protect those services and how our opponents will simply cut them out of existence. The fight ahead will be between unreconstructed Tories on the side of the few and a Labour Party on the side of all the people.
I don’t believe for one moment that Britain has given up on the principles of social justice and fairness and, for that reason, they will not turn to the Tories next year. My message, as I head for Brighton, is simple. Don’t write Labour off. The fight for Britain and Wales’ future is only just beginning. We can and we will win the next election.
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The single issue that Lesley’s argument hinges on is that she believes that the public don’t want cuts in expenditure. However, there is a strong acceptance out there that Labour have spent way too much. And when you consider the national debt is increasing by £5,000 per second, you can see why.
I’d also point out that while Vince wants to cut the number of government departments and expensive projects, Ed Balls wants to sack hundreds of headteachers , leaving schools without leadership.
That is why Lesley Griffiths is wrong. Labour are heading for humiliation, and they have earned it themselves.
There can be no doubt these type of articles will be written this week.
It brings me no pleasure to the see the end of the Labour Government (well perhaps the onset of a Tory one), but this whole the public haven’t ‘sealed the deal with Cameron’ narrative is rather futile without offering any explanation as to why he now has a 15% lead over Labour.
To me Labour blew their chance, a real once in a generation chance to alter the UK forever along progressive lines and realising the voters support of progressive parties (always more than the right-wing parties). However, it didn’t, it reneged on a deal on electoral reform with the Lib Dems and from there power corrupted.
So the question that never seem to be answered, even when Gordon Brown was pressed in this week’s New Statesman, is why are we now more unequal than under Thatcher?
Why Labour over seen a privatisation far beyond what Thatcher brought in? Why has PFI saddled us with billions of debt even before the economic crisis? Why supposed socialists have been claiming for second home and dodging the tax man? Why has it pandered to the Murdoch press? Why it was zealously in favour of light touch financial regulation and still now only pays lip service to changing it? Why the 10p tax band was removed, costing the poorest most? Why it has oversaw the rise of the BNP in former Labour areas? And let us not mention the Iraq and Afghan wars…
It borders on arrogance to say people are voting for other parties out of protest, that all Labour needs is a few balloons and some leaflets and people will come flooding back. The party has lost 4 million voters during its time in office – that is a lot of sustained protests.
So while Labour will do all it can to concentrate on the failings of Cameron, it refuses to dare question its record. I know I have focused on the negatives, but how someone can write an article without fair coverage given to why people have deserted Labour is systematic of the problem it faces.
“I don’t believe for one moment that Britain has given up on the principles of social justice and fairness…”
No, but many people believe the Labour Party has – you just need to look at their 12 year record in Government.
All the evidence from opinion polls show that a majority of the public expect the next government whoever they may be to instigate a programme of cuts. Perhaps more inportantly the money markets also expect cuts. The debate until the election should centre on the balance between cuts and tax increases. Sensible politicians in the Labour Party are at last beginning to realise that trotting out the mantra of Labour investment against Tory cuts just want wash with the voters. Labour faces probably its most difficult election since 1983. This short piece suggests that too many in the Party are still in denial and just haven’t faced up to what needs to be done. Hopefully for the survival of the Party Darling will in his pre budget report start to show where Labour would start to cut. Defence is an obvious area. We don’t need Trident and the two aircraft carriers should be scrapped straight away. The Eurofighter is also a complete waste of money having been designed to take out invading Soviet forces. It will probably never see action. We also have to put ID cards in the bin and look carefully at a number of freegoods that are now provided. There is nothing wrong with free bus passes but the Assembly has to set out what it needs to cut if these bus passes are to be kept. The UK government should scrap the winter fuel allowance for everyone. Reform also has to come in the public sector particularly with regard to pensions. I know that many in the Labour Party will not like any cuts . But what is the alternative? The Tories definitely will implement cuts and if they win the election by a large margin the Labour Party could be out of power for a generation. I lived through the 18 years of Tory government between 1979 and 1997. The crisis facing the Party and the scale of the possible defeat is much greater than 1979. Hoping for something to turnup I’m afraid will not win a vote next year. Voters expect responsible parties to set out how they will restore public finances. Those parties who fail to be straight with the voters cannot expect to be trusted to form the next UK government. It would be a real tragedy if Labour succeeded in stopping the recession turn into a depression and the Tories then benefited from the improvement in the economy. It might not be over until the Fat lady sings. At the moment the Labour Party is failing to lay a glove on the Tories. We are sleep walking towards disaster and they are not even breaking sweat as they coast to victory.
The public may not want cuts, but they accept they are inevitable. They may not like cuts, but they dislike dishonesty more. They certainly don’t think that being open about this is “a tactical blunder” although certainly friends of mine think Labour’s childish ‘Labour investment vs. Tory cuts’ nonsense was a bad idea – dishonest AND unconvincing.
It would pay Lesley Griffiths to visit W H Smith in Brighton to pick up a copy of this week’s Economist.and read the briefing from Pages 29 to 32. It sets out quite clearly the task ahead for any government after 2010. Perhaps we might have in the next few months articles from an Assembly members from all parties setting out where they think the savings should come from in the runup to the Assembly election in 2012. As the quote from Tony Travers points out the UK is now facing another East of Suex moment but this time on the domestic front. This year’s Assembly budget is the last reasonable one for years and even then local government is already talking about millions of pounds of cuts in the year 2010/11.