Beginning To Take Notice

The view from Scotland may be changing

AS A SCOTTISH nationalist who worked closely with Plaid Cymru colleagues during my time behind the scenes at Westminster, this isn’t a comfortable admission for me to have to make on behalf of my countrymen, but here goes. To our shame, when it comes to Welsh politics, few people in Scotland’s political and media bubble have been paying all that much attention. Up until now, that is.

Having always tried to keep at least a weather eye on Welsh political developments myself, I have to say that it’s been our loss entirely. While Scots politicos are quite flattered that Wales might look towards Scotland for a blueprint of how a model of Welsh government may develop, we nationalists have tended to cast our eyes to independent Norway or Ireland for examples as to how Scotland might progress. Even our unionists have looked elsewhere – usually to Catalunia or Bavaria – as successful examples of highly devolved ‘states within states’ that are seemingly happy with their lot.

This is a shame, for often as not over the past decade it has been Wales that has shown Scotland how devolution ought to be done. The timidity which marked the first few years of devolution in Scotland never seemed so apparent in Wales – something which might best be explained by the lack of a Welsh Gordon Brown figure brooding proprietorially in the background.

If Scotland lost her first First Minister in tragic circumstances, the removal of Alun Michael showed that however reluctant elements of the Welsh political class had been to embrace devolution, the Assembly wasn’t going to let itself be run by remote control from Downing Street for long. While Jack McConnell famously set about trying to ‘do less, better’, the Assembly very pointedly seemed to be doing much better with less. Prescription charges were scrapped – something which we’re only now getting around to. And it was Welsh Labour which showed at various points how government was possible without an overall majority, even if Scottish Labour never felt brave enough to try when the strains of their coalition with the Lib Dems threatened to become too much.

With many of the trappings of statehood already, Scotland can look with interest at how Wales is setting about trying to build the civic institutions which will help make sense of further self government. But if the widespread and mainstream use of the Welsh language has driven and legitimised much of this activity in a way that Scots Gaelic never could, there were also crucial differences in how Plaid and the SNP deployed the language of self government. Independence, full national status – in truth, it always seemed a minor theological difference. But given the contrasting fortunes of the two parties in the first few years of devolution, it gave some in the SNP pause for thought in terms of how we could best present our arguments to those who did not consider themselves our natural supporters.

However, if there have been differences in the nationalist approaches, then there have also been differences in the approach of our respective Labour parties, at least on home turf. Ron Davies and Rhodri Morgan had a far more organic view of devolution than their Scottish counterparts. They always seemed to have a much better idea of how devolution might be used, and definitely appeared more relaxed as to the relationship that the devolved institutions should have with London.

While Rhodri Morgan is happy to stand alongside Alex Salmond in arguing against Westminster spending cuts, Scottish Labour continues to tow the official line, arguing against all the available evidence that spending will continue to increase. While tensions with the centre might be a familiar refrain in sub-state politics, the idea that Labour in Westminster may be pursuing policies which run counter to Scotland’s interests is not yet something Scottish Labour will allow itself to contemplate, at least in public.

But if there are differences in Labour’s approaches at home, the attitude of Westminster Labour seems pretty constant. As you might expect, the differences between Labour and the SNP at Westminster can be quite fundamental. Yet it remains a source of wry amusement that some Welsh Labour MPs continue to growl at their Plaid counterparts about the supposed shortcomings of the nationalist approach, seemingly oblivious to the fact that their Assembly colleagues now sit in coalition with Plaid at the other end of the M4.

In contemplating the future, Scots of all persuasions can learn much from watching the often more subtle way the case for greater autonomy is being made in Wales. While a Scotland flush with oil revenues can point to a static balance sheet indicating relative surpluses of revenue over expenditure as a basis for greater autonomy and the viability of independence, the Holtham Commission report has done us all a favour by unpicking the lazy assumption that higher per capita public spending in Scotland and Wales is somehow unfair to other parts of the UK. Gerald Holtham may or may not go on to recommend that the Assembly be granted taxation powers, but it is inconceivable that the outcome of his Commission’s work will not have a resonance for Scotland also.

Through a combination of Labour and Conservative indifference, the report of the Calman Commission is now nestling in the long grass, leaving the unionist agenda for devolving further powers to Scotland far from clear. This paves the way for a future independence vote, unhindered by vague alternatives such as offering ‘more powers’ without saying ‘which powers’. The only remaining barrier is the stated opposition to such a vote amongst the non-nationalist majority at Holyrood. It’s this logjam which Welsh voters, perhaps to a lot of people’s surprise, may shortly find themselves in a position to be able to break, thanks to the prospect of a referendum on transferring legislative competence to the Assembly.

While there may be reluctance to move too far too quickly, as a provision of the 2006 Government of Wales Act, the ability to initiate a referendum on granting primary legislative powers can ensure that whether he likes it or not, a new round of constitutional reform goes right to the top of the Prime Minister’s in-tray. Just as it would not be sustainable to offer further powers to Wales without doing the same in Scotland, allowing voters in Wales a referendum on their future governance while arguing against a similar vote in Scotland is a fool’s errand, as any Westminster Government will very quickly be made to realise.

I wouldn’t presume to prophesise about how any future Scottish independence vote might go on to affect the debate in Wales. However, whereas Scotland has led Wales in the past down the road of reform, in the next year or two, it is Wales which could very well end up setting the pace for change in Scotland. Perhaps as never before, we Scots will be watching and waiting with interest to see what Wales does next, to see exactly what the implications of what you decide might mean for us.