10 years late, the New Politics arrives

Will the politicians' fight back mean more of the same?

ONLY three times in recent memory have any of the British state’s institutions appeared less than stable. In 1997, public shock over Diana’s death turned to anger at the Queen’s apparent rigid callousness, and the monarchy itself appeared momentarily vulnerable. In 2004, Lord Hutton delivered his devastating verdict on the BBC, and there briefly arose the possibility of a radical dismembering of the Corporation.

The third such moment is upon us and – make no mistake – we are on the apex of the teeter. The Daily Telegraph knew its two-week exposé of MPs’ expenses would be huge, but surely could not have imagined that Parliament and party politics would plunge to their lowest ebbs in living memory.

But a teeter is not a collapse. The Queen lowered the Union Flag and public disquiet dissipated. The government re-engineered the BBC’s governance and renewed its Charter. So the chances are that Parliament will swiftly reform its system of allowances and take the edge off the public fury that has arisen over the past fortnight.

And yet this is not certain. UKIP is surging in the opinion polls, Labour is being pushed to levels not seen since it supplanted the Liberals, and Friday saw the emergence of the first “white suits” (perhaps “clean skins” would be more apt); anti-corruption, anti-politics candidates pledged to visit a plague on all houses. No.10 and Conservative HQ must be nervously watching for signs of a popular tycoon tempted to emulate Silvio Berlusconi in founding a new demagogic movement. The only saving graces for the parties are that big businessmen are currently toxic, that Jordan is in the throes of a messy separation, and that Joanna Lumley appears content to campaign only on behalf of the Gurkhas.

But if a popular movement were to catalyse, how might it affect Welsh politics? The polling evidence shows anger at MPs highest among the working classes, lowest among the middle classes (or perhaps merely lower among those who themselves submit expense claims). Welsh Labour’s vote in the Valleys is therefore most vulnerable of all. Given the pre-existing fragility the effects of this episode could be devastating; even if Forward The People (a working title) or a rag-bag of independents took few seats they could easily split Labour’s vote in half a dozen or more constituencies and let Plaid through. But this could also be sauce for the gander elsewhere, with the Conservative vote hit in those swathe of seats it is hoping to pick up. Here it might be possible to imagine an unpredictable mix of Lib Dem or anti-politics victories.

It is far too fluid to try and game out the effect of an anti-politics party or movement on Wales’s electoral map. What is more intriguing is what it might do to our devolved politics. Here the ground was prepared for a shattering of the party system in 2007. Blaenau Gwent, once an impregnable Labour fortress, is Trish Law’s for as long as she chooses to stand. In Islwyn an independent took nearly a third of the ballot papers, while in Ynys Mon a quarter of votes went to another. The only thing that prevented other surprises was the absence of more party dissidents. That could easily change now.

On the list, meanwhile, things could become even more febrile. Around one in five voters in 2007 split their ticket, voting one way with their constituency vote and another with their list vote. Because of a relatively high degree of stickiness among the main parties, the net effect was to “churn” these splits and give the impression of a high degree of unified ticket voting. But if voters split their ticket outside the four main parties, the effect could be dramatic. The BNP – already Wales’s fifth most popular party – could benefit, but so too could the Greens, UKIP and others. An anti-politics party could capitalise here as well. Ironically, Labour might find mercy in its decision to elect a third of the Assembly via the list, as it begins to yield seats lost in the constituencies.

Again, it is pointless to try and forecast the composition of a future Assembly elected in this environment. But the cultural shift is more foreseeable. The term “rainbow coalition” could take on a whole new meaning, with a government comprised of half a dozen groupings. There could be options for a putative coalition leader, be that Labour, Plaid or the Tories, beyond the Lib Dems or another grand coalition. Or – most intriguingly of all – the very system of strong party politics could begin to erode.

Wales was promised a new politics in 1999, yet we have had nothing more unconventional than the use of first names in the Siambr. In its approach to party politics, the Assembly resembles Westminster’s Mini-Me, a post-colonial legislature set up in the image of its former master. Even the novelty of the One Wales Government is an affirmation that strong, centralised parties have the whip hand. There is no reason why this should or needs to continue. A healthy admixture of many weak parties and independents could serve democracy just as well, with AMs more free to vote with their conscience, or in the interests of their constituents.

David Cameron argued last week that we must cut the costs of politics, but surely the real objective is to increase its value to voters. The focus should be less on reducing expenses and more on boosting responsiveness. Wales’s democracy is small enough to make that aspiration credible. This may be the start of something that goes far beyond mere disillusionment in greedy politicians.